TPLF found in global terrorism blacklist « Ethiopia: A voice for the voiceless

TPLF found in global terrorism blacklist « Ethiopia: A voice for the voiceless

እውነት ግን “ይህ አገር የማነው?”

እውነት ግን “ይህ አገር የማነው?”
በዳዊት ከበደ

ስድብ የእውቀት መለኪያ አይደለም፡
ሰው እንዴት በዚህ ደረጃ ለስድብ ይተጋል?
የፀያፍ ቃላት ‹‹ሱሰኛ›› መሆንስ ለማን ነው
የሚጠቅመው? ስደት ሰለቸን ብለው ለእህል ውሀ
የተንበረከኩ ሰዎች ሌሎች እንዲሰደዱ መካሪ
የሚሆኑት በምን አይነት ሎጂክ ነው?

አውራምባ ታይምስ 4ኛ ዓመት ቁጥር 186 ቅዳሜ መስከረም 13/ 2004

ላይ የህሊና ነጻነት በኢትዮጵያ የትኛው ገደል ውስጥ እንደሆነ ያንብቡ >>>

http://ethioforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Awramba-Times-issue186.pdf

WikiLeaks Update (14) - EthioCables -released upto 2011-08-30

http://wikileaks.org/origin/189_1.html


See in particular the following - The Tenor of US Foreign policy on Ethiopia:

http://dazzlepod.com/cable/06ADDISABABA3048/?q=06ADDISABABA3048

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RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0213 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ADDIS ABABA 003048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR A/S FRAZER AND DAS YAMAMOTO FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016 
TAGS:              
SUBJECT: AN AMERICAN/ETHIOPIAN PARTNERSHIP SO CRITICAL AND 
SO CRITICIZED 
 
Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (SBU) Summary:  As I prepare to turn over my 
responsibilities to my good friend and respected colleague, 
Ambassador Don Yamamoto, I urge the USG to maintain and 
strengthen our partnership with Ethiopia.  Ethiopia is moving 
in the right direction -- despite the nay-sayers -- on 
democracy, development, and protecting the region from 
terrorism and radical Islam.  If we fail to consolidate and 
support Ethiopia, we could unwittingly contribute to the 
break-up of the nation, and fuel a Christian - Muslim 
conflict in the Horn.  Abraham Lincoln said of his 
Presidency, "I confess to not having controlled events, but 
to having been controlled by events."  No African government 
can ensure to its citizens democracy, jobs and peace over the 
next half century without the assistance of the United States 
and the international community.  Ethiopia is an old empire 
but a fragile one.  Political and religious divisions could 
potentially tear away parts of Oromiya, Gambella, and the 
Somali region from the uneasy federation.  Even Tigray, where 
the Abyssinian empire began, is at risk because the jailed 
CUD leaders want a unitary state that includes Eritrea, and 
Tigrean and Eritreans alike will resist Amahara domination. 
 
 2. (SBU)  When Assistant Secretary Frazer called for a 
"partnership with Africa," she implicitly recognized that 
Africa looks to us not just for assistance, but for moral 
legitimacy that reinforces and encourages good government. 
Ethiopia, with its 77 million Christian and Muslims -- the 
second most populus country in Africa -- would seem to be the 
ideal partner.   It is the oldest nation and the only one not 
to have been colonized in sub-Saharan Africa.  It is the only 
democratic nation that can project power throughout the Horn. 
 It is also the remaining bulwark against the expansion of 
radical Islam throughout Somalia and beyond.  We cannot allow 
a once chaotic collection of clans led by Islamist and 
terrorist to turn itself into an African Taliban that could 
again destroy our embassies and our interests.  To assure 
that those who would create a Muslim Caliphate are not 
successful, we must become a full and trusted partner that 
can help resolve the internal political, ethnic and religious 
divides that threaten Ethiopia's existence and the region's 
stability.  The recent killings of Christian and Muslims -- 
now on CDs being passed around --  and the burning of 
churches is seen by head of the Supreme Islamic Council as a 
provocation by Wahhabists who are determined to upend the 
delicate religious balance in a country between a country 
considered to be "Christian" by Muslims, but which is home to 
over 30 million Muslims. 
 
 3. (SBU) We have stood steadfast with Ethiopia over a 
difficult year, allowing impressive progress to be made, 
despite the temporary loss of over $300 million in assistance 
from the World Bank and the European Union.  Today, with both 
Bank and Union aid restored, Ethiopia is being given some of 
the highest marks in Africa for carrying out policies that 
will lead to sustainable development.  Ethiopia has made 
application for accession to the WTO and maintained a growth 
rate of seven percent of GDP over the last several years.  If 
Ethiopia can meet rising expectations by providing 
opportunity for its people, it can overcome its internal 
divisons.  Our resources will be needed to win that race 
against time.  Nowhere are our dollars better spent than in 
reforming state institutions from Justice to Security and in 
educating Ethiopians to fully participate in their future. 
Because we built a relationship of trust with the Prime 
Minister and his innter circle as well as with the 
opposition, we were instrumental in getting Parliament to 
revise its rules and conduct open debates between the ruling 
party and the 150 opposition MPs.  The ruling party continues 
its dialogue with all legal oppositions parties, and in 
consultation with them is preparing to name a new National 
Electoral Board to prepare for elections in the spring of 
 2007.  The Parliament is poised to enact anti-terrorism and 
media laws that meet international standards.  The report of 
the Independent Inquiry Commission into the riots following 
the May 2005 elections, has been openly debated in Parliament 
and in the media.  Despite the barrage of international 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003048  002 OF 005 
 
 
criticism, there is no dispute about the facts.  The report 
presented to the Parliament documented 193 deaths, accused 
the government of mistakes and requested follow-on 
investigations.  The difference between the Commissioners who 
defected -- and now are presenting their story to our 
Congress -- is an argument over whether the security forces 
used excessive force. 
 
 4. (SBU)  The democratic trend is positive.  But the 
partnership will not be strengthened if we bend to demands to 
pass legislation that puts Ethiopia in the same category as 
countries on our terrorist list, or make public our private 
concerns about human rights and governance.  We now stand a 
chance of being instrumental in gaining pardons for the CUD 
detinees, but this could be jeopardized if Ethiopia's leaders 
calculate that they will be seen as reacting to international 
pressure.  Ethiopia -- as I have learned -- will not act from 
weakness or because of public threats or even loss of aid. 
Yet it will -- and has -- listened to its friends.  If we 
stay the course -- continue the partnership, and build the 
trust -- not only do we stand a good chance of getting the 
prisoners pardons, but we will reinforce good governance, 
economic reform and defense against terrorism in the Horn. 
Ethiopia is neither -- as its critics like to claim -- a 
Marxist-Leninist dictatorship, nor is it a multi-party 
democracy that strictly adheres to open market principles. 
But if hubris demands that partnership be based on our 
standards, then we will find ourselves helping those whose 
principal goal is neither democracy nor development, but 
regime change.  The policy of partnership is succeeding. 
Meles has listened to our advice not to attack the Islamic 
Courts, considered pardons for the CUD prisoners, and to put 
in place a democratic process.  These actions have convinced 
the Europeans and World Bank to resume and increase their 
assistance.  As we continue to build our partnership, we will 
be foremost among Ethiopia's friends and foremost among those 
who are committed to help Ethiopia ensure that the trend to 
democracy, development and stability becomes a reality.  End 
Summary. 
 
ONE YEAR LATER WHAT HAS BEEN DONE? 
---------------------------------- 
 
 5. (SBU) Our conversations with Meles and the EPRDF hierarchy 
have effectively encouraged Meles and the GOE to deepen their 
commitment to Ethiopia's democracy and development.  Ethiopia 
has moved from meeting four out of sixteen of the Millennium 
Challenge Account indicators last year to meeting seven out 
of sixteen this year.  Today 150 opposition MP's are fully 
participating in Parliament, compared with only a handful 
eighteen months ago.  Opposition MPs hold the chair and 
deputy chair of the Accounting Committee and two deputy 
chairs in the other 13 standing committees.  Dialogue between 
the ruling EPRDF party and all the opposition parties 
resulted in the overwhelming adoption of modified 
Parliamentary rules that reflect international standards and 
permit the opposition to question Minister and propose laws. 
The on-going dialogue among the ruling party and opposition 
has already addressed rule of law issues in the Oromia and 
Amhara regions and will now publicly review a new media law 
and capacity building at the National Electoral Board. 
Consultants from the US have laid out the international 
standards that we expect both the media and anti-terrorism 
laws to meet.  Public financing of political parties is also 
under consideration.  Perhaps most importantly, Prime 
Minister Meles is publicly committed to democracy and to 
eradicating poverty.  He has appeared before Parliament six 
times in the last nine months.  Opposition leaders' speeches 
and critiques have been televised and published in the state 
media.  The recent EPRDF summit acknowledged the ruling 
party's weak performance in governance, and committed the 
next three years to improved governance, building democracy 
and development. 
 
 6. (SBU) As for those detained in connection with last 
November's violent unrest, our discussions with Meles led to 
dropping the charges against VOA reporters and 14 others and 
the reduction of charges.  The judicial process has been open 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003048  003 OF 005 
 
 
to the public, including to US NGO Lawyers Without Borders. 
The prosecution has recently argued somewhat more 
persuasively through ongoing witness testimony that some of 
the defendants called for armed uprising and protest to 
overthrow the government.  The trial is expected to end in 
early January.  During their year-long detention, the 
prisoners have had access to health care and visitors.  The 
principal CUD leaders have allegedly continued to advocate 
civil disobedience, and all but three defendants have refused 
legal counsel.  We continue to seek ways to reconcile the 
differences and have some hope, as Meles reiterated his 
commitment to pardons if the defendants are found guilty but 
are willing to work within the system and to express regret 
for their past mistakes.  Untangling this web of fear, ethnic 
differences and political ambition will take time.  It is not 
a one-sided problem.  Some of the CUD detained leaders as 
well as their vocal, hard-line supporters in the Diaspora are 
unwilling to engage in the democratic process, whether by 
joining Parliament or by agreeing to disavow street action. 
 
THE RIGHT AND WRONG WAYS TO PERSUADE THE GOE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 7. (SBU) If we have the courage to strengthen our commitment 
to Ethiopia, we have much to gain.  But if we aggressively 
and publicly press Meles in order to appease the Diaspora, 
some members of Congress and some civil society groups, we 
will lose Ethiopia.   We will cede our influence, leaving the 
field to China, Russia and others who have little interest in 
helping to create a multi-party democracy.  We will not gain 
the release of the CUD detainees, or even the improved 
governance performance we seek, because Meles will not 
respond if he is not treated with respect and as a full 
partner.  Meles was willing to forego $300 million in World 
Band and European Commission assistance because he believed 
that they had broken their partnership with Ethiopia.  The 
GOE, despite its friendship with us, remains unsure about 
whether rebuilding its partnership with the West is worth the 
effort if the relationship will break down when the going 
gets rough.  Meles has already turned to China as a more 
reliable partner than Europe, even though EU assistance 
levels have been restored.  But Meles will always do what he 
believes to be in the country's national interest rather than 
accepting our demands.  Today we have a strong relationship 
with Meles and the inner circle, but it is a wary one.  It is 
not yet a full partnership because Washington remains 
hesitant over Ethiopia's human rights record, despite 
significant improvements over last year.  As Ethiopia faces - 
almost alone -- a radical Islamist challenge to its existence 
and the region's stability, it is time to put aside our 
hesitations and make Ethiopia a full partner of the US.  It 
will help the GOE grow democracy and civil society by 
promoting stability, reconciling the country's numerous 
ethnic and separatist aspirations and assuring continuing 
tolerance among Christian Orthodox and Muslim faith. 
 
SOMALIA 
------- 
 
 8. (C) Somalia's Islamic Courts (CIC), led by Sheik Hassan 
Dahir Aweys, according to Embassy Nairobi, "has had one 
consistent agenda and this is the establishment of an 
extremist Islamic state in Somalia" and to that end "(he) is 
willing to countenance significant bloodshed to achieve it." 
Aweys' CIC over the past six months has morphed from 
providing security in Mogadishu into a radical movement 
fueled by the militant Shabaab ("youth").  They are now in 
open battle with the semi-autonomous region of Puntland and 
attempting to subvert Somaliland.  The CIC -- with support 
from Al Qaeda East African operatives, foreign resources and 
other Jihadist fighters -- is poised to attack Baidoa, the 
headquarters of the shaky Transitional Federal Government. 
If successful, the Islamists will have not just overturned a 
legitimate government  -- set up by Somalis, the region and 
the international community after fourteen years of chaos -- 
but it will then establish itself as the radical Islamic 
government of southern Somalia.  It will have set a precedent 
for using force to overturn a legitimate government.  The 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003048  004 OF 005 
 
 
newly-minted and potentially effective US Strategy for 
Engagement in Somalia offers the possibility of preserving 
the Somalia TFG and containing the CIC, but time is not on 
our side. 
 
 9. (C) The goal of pan-Somali nationalist Aweys is the 
powerful idea of "Greater Somalia" that Siad Barre thought he 
could create by invading Ethiopia.  This invasion prolonged 
the bloody DERG regime, left thousands homeless and dead and 
was only resolved in Ethiopia's favor by the Soviet and Cuban 
troops and equipment.  If successful in defeating the TFG at 
Baidoa, Aweys' forces will gain momentum; already daily 
flights of men and equipment are pouring into Mogadishu for 
an attack on Puntland and Somaliland in the expectation that 
this will unite Somalia.  At the same time, insurgents from 
Oromiya (the OLF) and the Ogaden (the ONLF), backed by 
Eritrea, will move east into Ethiopia.  The ONLF intends to 
break off Ethiopia's Somali region, uniting it with a Greater 
Somali state.  The OLF will either ensure that there is 
regime change in Addis Ababa or separate Oromiya from 
Ethiopia.  In the end, Ethiopia's enemies -- most notably 
Eritrea -- would be successful in breaking up Ethiopia and 
ousting Meles.  To the south, Kenya's northern provinces with 
substantial Somali populations would be laid open to 
subversion and eventual partition.  Even CIC-friendly 
Djibouti would come under pressure to exchange its moderate 
Islam for a more radical posture.  Admittedly, the above is 
the worse case scenario.  Undoubtedly, the CIC will meet 
greater resistance as it attempts to govern different clans 
within Somalia and conquer territories of neighboring states. 
 But even a best case scenario, should the CIC win at Baidoa, 
gives the CIC and through it Al Qaeda a country of 10 million 
people from whence it can attack moderate Muslim and 
Christian countries, as well as Western interests, in Africa. 
 There should be no doubt about this, given that Somalia 
harbors the terrorists who blew up our embassies in Nairobi 
and Dar Es Salaam. 
 
A PLAN OF ACTION FOR ETHIOPIA 
----------------------------- 
 
 10. (SBU) What can be done in Somalia?  Ethiopia is already 
on the front lines.  Although vilified and clearly out-gunned 
by CIC propaganda, the GOE will not back down in defending 
its national security.  Meles told me that Ethiopia will 
defend Baidoa to the end.  If Ethiopia is successful -- and I 
believe it will be -- then the CIC momentum will be broken. 
An opportunity will arise to stop Somalia from being devoured 
by the radical Islam.  If we - and ideally our European 
allies - seize the opportunity, we can begin to stabilize 
Somalia under the TFG by providing advice, information and 
support to Ethiopia.   Most effective for Ethiopia would be 
to have implicit approval of its support to the TFG through a 
UNSC resolution lifting the arms embargo on the TFG and 
authorizing the Ugandan IGASOM.  If the battle for Baidoa -- 
or other conflict between anti-CIC forces and the CIC -- has 
successfully taken place, IGASOM will still be necessary to 
stabilize southern Somalia.  At the same time, we and our 
allies and the region must continue to strengthen governance 
and development projects in all of Somalia while encouraging 
the TFG to incorporate moderate elements of the CIC, thereby 
marginalizing the radicals. 
 
 11. (SBU) At the same time, we will continue to press 
Ethiopia to improve governance and human rights while 
expanding opportunities for effective engagement of civil 
society and opposition parties.  I have met with Meles 
biweekly on average and I have never had a meeting with him 
in which I did not raise the issues of governance and human 
rights.  I have met with him numerous times to review 
strategies for resolution of the Eritrea/Ethiopian border, 
Somalia and internal governance, and never failed to suggest 
solutions for the CUD detainees.  As a result, I have been 
able to visit the prisoners three times and am working with 
concerned Ethiopians and Ethiopian-Americans on a process 
that may lead to pardons.  The point here is that Meles -- 
and the inner circle -- listen to our advice if it is given 
in private and as a partner.  Therefore I would suggest that 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003048  005 OF 005 
 
 
we lay out a series of bench marks which can be used by 
Washington to gauge Ethiopia's progress, as follows: 
 
-- Parliament passes a media law and anti-terrorism laws that 
meet international standards; 
-- The opposition is consulted on the appointment of a new, 
neutral National Electoral Board. 
-- Parliament approves public financing for political parties; 
-- GOE engages successfully with donors on the governance 
matrix; 
-- The Government pursues the investigations recommended by 
the Independent Inquiry Commission; 
-- Offices of legal opposition parties that have not been 
reopened are opened; 
-- All legal parties are permitted to participate in the 
Spring elections; 
-- The judicial process is completed and a verdict determined 
for all CUD detainees; 
-- If found guilty, CUD detainees who agree not to engage in 
illegal activities or civil disobedience are pardoned; 
-- Preparations for local elections are done in consultation 
with the opposition; and 
-- Local elections are successfully held. 
 
 12. (SBU) The almost rosy scenario on Somalia has a much 
better chance of success if we are ready to cement a full 
partnership with Ethiopia, because it is only Ethiopia that 
now blocks a radical Islamist state from rising in the Horn 
of Africa.  If we fail to act, we will be the losers.  But if 
we are working with the government and the opposition to 
achieve the benchmarks laid out above, Ethiopians will have a 
real chance of a prosperous and democratic future.  The 
American people care about Africa.  They want to see improved 
human rights and more freedom for Africa's citizens.  They 
also recognize that this can not be achieved if African 
states are warring against each other or being overrun by 
extremist forces financed and supported from abroad.  When 
the war comes - as it will -- we can best help Ethiopian 
democracy if we are a firm and reliable partner.  It is time 
to stop hating Ethiopia -- the trend is in the right 
direction and the danger is great. 
HUDDLESTON